The seminar was jointly organized by the Vietnam Timber and Forest Products Association (VIFOREST), the Binh Duong Wood Processing Association (BIFA), the Handicraft and Wood Processing Association of Ho Chi Minh City (HAWA), the Dong Nai Handicraft and Wood Association (DOWA), the Binh Dinh Wood and Forest Products Association (FPA Binh Dinh) and Forest Trends.
In his opening speech, Mr. Do Xuan Lap – Chairman of the Vietnam Timber and Forest Products Association – said that the United States is the most important export market for the Vietnamese wood industry and may have very big changes in the near future.
Overview of the Seminar on Vietnam’s wood industry facing changes in the export market
These changes may be caused by the new tax policy applied by the US Government to imported goods into this market in the future. China, Mexico and Vietnam are respectively the three countries with the largest trade surplus with the US. The US government plans to impose a 60% tax on all goods imported from China and 15-20% on goods imported from other countries.
It is forecasted that in 2024, Vietnam’s wood and wood product exports will reach over 16.2 billion USD, of which exports to the United States account for 56% of total export turnover, reaching nearly 9 billion USD and imports from this market will reach over 230 million USD. Thus, in the US market alone, the Vietnamese wood industry has a trade surplus of about 8.8 billion USD in wood and product import and export activities, showing that the US is the leading and most important market for the Vietnamese wood industry.
With the upcoming policy change of the US market when the Donald Trump administration takes office, Vietnam in general and the wood industry in particular can benefit from the high US tax rate applied to goods from China.
However, if the import and investment from China to Vietnam are not well controlled, Vietnam may suffer negative impacts. In addition, the US may also apply new tariffs on goods from Vietnam, including wood products. This will cause difficulties in exports and impact production.
In the context of strong policy fluctuations in the coming time, what the wood industry needs to prepare and what to do is a question being asked to all relevant parties from state agencies to associations, the Vietnamese wood business community, not just businesses exporting to the US market.
At the seminar, representatives of the Vietnamese trade agency in the US, speakers/experts shared and updated information such as: Changes in US trade policy and impacts on Vietnamese industries in the future; Vietnam – US wood trade in the trade relationship between the US and China; Foreign and Chinese investment in Vietnam’s wood industry in recent years.
Analyzing and forecasting the difficulties as well as the advantages that the Vietnamese wood industry will enjoy. At the same time, it also gives very important recommendations to help Vietnamese wood industry enterprises what to do to reduce the trade balance gap when the wood industry’s trade surplus in this market reaches 8.8 billion USD, Dr. Huynh The Du, Lecturer of Public Policy, Director of Training, Fulbright Economics Teaching Program, Vietnam – said that Vietnamese enterprises need to increase direct investment in the US market, increase trade/linkage and cooperation with US enterprises, this is also an opportunity for wood industry enterprises to expand their direct distribution market in the US market. In addition, Vietnam needs to create more favorable conditions for US investors in the Vietnamese market.
In the sharing of Dr. To Xuan Phuc – Policy Analyst – Forest Trends Organization also provided evidence to have a clearer analysis of the picture of the Vietnamese wood industry in the relationship between China and the United States as well as to assess the shifting flows if the policies of the Donald Trump Administration are applied in the coming time, in which three main observations were made: Shifting supply chains; shifting Chinese investment flows to other countries; and shifting immigration.
Concluding the Seminar, Mr. Do Xuan Lap said that although this Seminar could not provide specific and clear solutions for what wood industry enterprises will have to do in the coming time. However, based on the sharing of the delegates, in the current context of the wood industry and the upcoming tax scenario for markets including Vietnam, the Vietnamese wood industry recommends that state agencies continue to accompany the wood industry in the coming time in providing information on policy warnings, trade barriers, and trade defense measures; Providing information and support to Vietnamese wood industry enterprises when they seek investment opportunities in the US market; Being the focal point for organizing seminars connecting businesses between the two countries to encourage investment in both forms; At the same time, it is also necessary to promote/introduce a sustainable and legal Vietnamese wood industry to partners.